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UFC 132 Preview and Predictions

by on July 1, 2011

By Daniel Galvan

Well it’s Friday morning and Tito Ortiz hasn’t pulled out of his fight against Ryan Bader, so that is a good sign for the recently injury-ridden UFC cards. The plethora of MMA shows continue as UFC 132 has one of the more stacked main cards we have seen in quite awhile. While this show may not have the marquee super-fight, I still believe that this show will do reasonably well as far as buy-rates go because it has a lot of intriguing fights that would be fantastic co-main events on ever card. Almost every fight on the main card features one or two fighters that are intriguing to the casual viewer. The main event features WEC’s most popular and important fighter Urijah Faber taking on the UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz in a grudge match. This is the platform for Urijah Faber to become a UFC superstar and ignite a fire in the bantamweight division as far as casual interest goes. This could go down in history as one of the more important fights in the bantamweight division history because it could be point where bantamweights are viable main-eventers, and that will only make it easier for featherweights to main-event shows. That is if Urijah Faber is able to topple Dominick Cruz. I think Cruz is a fantastic fighter and should probably be the favorite in this fight, but he isn’t the guy who will never become a UFC superstar along the lines of George St. Pierre, Brock Lesnar, Anderson Silva, and eventually Jon Jones.

 

The co-main event fight between Chris Leben and Wanderlei Silva is a fight that definitely appeals to the casual viewers and could be the reason why people purchase the event. Both fighters are stars in the eyes of casual MMA fans, and this fight also promises to be an exciting bout. This fight has so many variables, as no one really knows which Chris Leben will show up, and people will continue to wonder if age has finally taken its toll with the Axe Murderer. The Huntington Beach Bad Boy, Tito Ortiz is one of the most well-known MMA fighters and is another reason why I believe that this PPV buy-rate will surprise a lot of people. He will be facing a rare breed in the UFC. That rare breed is an Ultimate Fighter winner that is not on the verge of being cut. Ryan Bader is put in a perfect position as he has a fight that he has a great chance of winning against a fighter with a big name. This fight could also be the end of the road for Tito Ortiz as he hasn’t won an MMA fight since October 2006 when he beat Ken Shamrock. A top welterweight contender will also be crowned as Carlos Condit who is looking to win his fourth straight UFC fight will take on the undefeated Dong Hyun Kim who is coming off a big win over Nate Diaz. The main card is rounded out with Dennis Siver ,who is quietly rising the ranks of the light-weight division after his upset win over George Sotiropoulous, will take on Matt Wiman who is coming of a decision win over Cole Miller. The Spike prelims will also feature top lightweights as Melvin Guillard will face Shane Roller and George Sotiropolous will face Rafael Dos Anjos. With all that being said, lets break down the fights.

 

UFC Bantamweight Championship Fight
Urijah “California Kid” Faber (25-4) vs Dominick “Dominator” Cruz (17-1)

            Cruz has to have one of the most deceptive strikers in the UFC. While he is a good striker, he is definitely not an “elite” striker that a lot of people are claiming that he is. His biggest tool is his speed and counter-strikes. There is one break in the armor as far as Cruz’s striking goes and that is himself letting himself get hit with right hooks and big single punch shots. In his fight against Joseph Benavidez, Cruz was caught with a couple of big shots that just didn’t have the power to put down Cruz, but Dominick was still able to utilize his speed and take-downs to take the fight over the Team Alpha Male product. Cruz’s wrestling makes him so versatile as he is an elite wrestler. He was able to take-down Benavidez at will, and he has superb take-down defense. Urijah Faber is another well-rounded fighter who has an explosive right-hand and good take-downs. This will definitely be a fast-paced fight as both will work for take-downs and combinations on the feet. I see both guys scoring with punches and early, especially each guy’s right hooks. I don’t think either one of the fighters will score a take-down in the first couple of rounds as both men are difficult to take-down. This fight will be won in the championship rounds as that is where fatigue sets in and the fighters will be more susceptible to big punches and take-downs. I think that Faber will be the one to take the advantage in the later rounds and power down Cruz with slams and take-downs as it seems like the California Kid never gets tired. Urijah gets better after every round, and I think he will be able to win a close decision. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Faber catches Cruz with a big right to end the fight.

My Prediction – Urijah Faber def. Dominick Cruz via Decision

 

Middleweight Bout
“The Axe Murderer” Wanderlei  Silva (33-10-1 (1)) vs Chris “The Crippler” Leben (25-7)

            This fight has so many different variables that it is hard to predict this one. I will say that I can’t wait as both of these fighters love to stand and bang, and their styles match up well as Leben is the aggressor, and Silva has developed into a tactical counter-striker. I already have the third round envisioned in my mind and it is nothing but balls to wall rock’em sock’em robots. I have no idea how Silva is going to show up as the durability issue is always coming up after all of the insane brawls he has taken part of and his age. Leben is extremely inconsistent with his fights as one day he will look like he will is on top of the world such as his fantastic come-back win over Yoshihiro Akiyama, but he can also look like a fighter that is on the verge of being cut such as his fight with Brian Stann. Silva is the safer pick, and that is why I think he will be able to out-point Leben with some good counters and knees. Silva should watch out for Leben’s power, but I do think that Wanderlei is the better technical striker and is more stable mentally and emotionally than Leben.

My Prediction – Wanderlei Silva def. Chris Leben via Decision  

 

Light-Heavyweight Bout
Tito “The Huntington Beach Bad-Boy” Ortiz (15-8-1) vs Ryan “Darth” Bader (12-1)

            I really don’t see a way that Tito Ortiz wins this fight. The only way that it could happen is if he is able to take down Bader, but I don’t think that he will be able to take the down the bigger and more athletic wrestler. As I said earlier in the introduction, this a great fight for Bader. Bader can really take it anywhere. He can head-hunt on the feet and look to knock-out Ortiz with a big over-hand right, or he can take the fight to the ground and work from the top position on the former Light-heavyweight Champion. Bader has everything on his side, youth, athleticism, strength, skill, and speed. So now that I am so sure that Bader will defeat Ortiz, I am more than positive Tito will knock-out Ryan in the first round, but nonetheless I think Bader will finish Tito in Ortiz’s last UFC fight.

My Prediction – Ryan Bader def. Tito Ortiz via 1st Round TKO

 

Welterweight Bout
Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit (26-5) vs Dong “Stun Gun” Hyun Kim (14-0-1 (1))

            My question is will we finally see the “Stun Gun” submission that was promised from Kim after his victory over Nate Diaz. I will probably predict against that as Condit is one of the toughest guys to submit, and is pretty much dangerous from every position on the ground. I favor Condit in this fight because I believe he has the better striking and BJJ, and he has shown that he has great finishing ability in his fight against Rory MacDonald. Kim will look to stifle Condit for the majority of the fight with superior judo, and surprising strength. Kim may be surprised in the clench as Condit has brutal and dangerous elbows and knees. I just think that Carlos will be able to keep it on the feet and use his improved striking to out-point or finish Kim. I also think that if Kim takes it to the ground, Condit will use his guard to work off his back although I admit that Kim is one of the harder welterweights to submit. I really do think that Condit will be the first real blemish on the record of Dong Hyun Kim.

My Prediction – Carlos Condit def. Dong Hyun Kim via 2nd Round TKO

 

Lightweight Bout
Dennis “The Menace” Siver (18-7) vs “Handsome” Matt Wiman (13-5)

You can already mark this one down as a great fight. Both of these guys bring the fight and will bring the aggression. Siver is a versatile kick-boxer coming of a huge upset victory over George Sotiropoulos.  Wiman is an aggressive striker who has good take-downs, coming of a nice win over fellow TUF 5 contender Cole Miller. Wiman will bring the good combinations, but Siver will bring the counter-strikes and leg kicks. Dennis will definitely have the advantage on the feet as he has shown in his previous fights that he is one of the elite strikers in the lightweight division. I still wouldn’t discount Wiman landing a couple of big bombs. Wiman will probably look to take the fight to the ground, but that won’t be too easy in the first couple of rounds as Siver as shown above average take-down defense. I would expect a bit of the first to be in the clench, and Siver will probably have the advantage in the clench. I suspect that Wiman might come on and take the third round, but it probably won’t be enough to win the fight. With a win here Siver is only a couple of big wins away from a light-weight title shot.

My Prediction – Dennis Siver def. Matt Wiman via Unanimous Decision

 

Lightweight Bout
Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard (27-8-2 (1)) vs Shane Roller (10-3)

            After a big win over Evan Dunham, Melvin Guillard looks to take a step down in a competition. That is not to discredit Shane Roller, as Roller is an exceptional fighter but Dunham at the time of his fight against Guillard looked to be a light-weight on the rise. What Roller brings to the table is great wrestling and punching power. Shane showcased his power in his last fight against Thiago Tavares where he got the KO victory. While Roller is a scrapper, I favor Guillard  in this fight as he is the much faster and technical striker of the two. I think Guillard will look to get some space and land some combinations without getting tagged by Roller. I expect Melvin to fight a safe fight as he is in a low-reward situation.

My Prediction – Melvin Guillard def. Shane Roller via Unanimous Decision

 

Lightweight Bout
George Sotiropoulos (14-3) vs Rafael Dos Anjos (14-5)

            Sotiropoulos has a chip on his shoulder after his tough loss to Dennis Siver, and unfortunately for Dos Anjos he will be on the receiving end of George’s BJJ skills. While Dos Anjos is one of the more solid lightweights and will probably be a solid UFC fight for the next five years, George is the better grappler of the two. While it will be hard for George to submit the fellow black belt, I anticipate to work successfully from the top position and threaten submission. Dos Anjos may have the striking advantage, but I don’t think he will be able to prevent himself from being taken down.

My Prediction – George Sotiropoulos via Unanimous Decision

 

Bantamweight Bout
Brian Bowles (9-1) vs Takeya Mizugaki (14-5-2)

            It is simply unbelievable that this fight isn’t even on Spike TV. This fight features two of the more relevant fighters in the bantamweight division, and this fight promises great action. Both fighters are fantastic in all areas and work for the finish. I favor Bowles as he has more power on the fight and has the better wrestling. While Mizugaki may take the BJJ aspect of the match-up Bowles will be good enough to sprawl and brawl and get some space when Mizugaki looks to clench. Mizugaki is very dangerous in the later rounds, but I don’t think it will get to the third as I think that Bowles will over-whelm Takeya with punches early and showcase his power.

My Prediction – Brian Bowles def. Takeya Mizugaki via 1st Round KO

 

Middleweight Bout
Brad Tavares (7-0) vs Aaron “A-Train” Simpson (8-2)

            Tavares is an good, young fighter from the Ultimate Fighter season, but Simpson is just too much for Tavares at this point in Brad’s career. If Simpson decides to strike with Tavares and prove a point then he may regret it, but if he plays it safe by taking down Tavares then he should ride his way to a decision victory or even a finish by working from on-top of Tavares.

While Simpson hasn’t gotten a finish since 2009, I think that that will change on Saturday tonight.

My Prediction – Aaron Simpson def. Brad Tavares def. 2nd Round TKO

Lightweight Bout
Andre Winner (11-5-1) vs Anthony “The African Assassin” Njokuani (13-5 (1))

This is another stand-up war that I am definitely looking forward to. Both of these guys prefer to stand and are good strikers are that. Winner is a better boxer, but Njokuani is a more versatile striker throwing in kicks and other explosive strikes such as elbows and knees. The same bet for Winner is to take Njokuani to the ground, but I think he will be sucked up into the stand-up war that could possibly ensue. Winner will probably clench up Njokuani and dirty box by landing some nice punches to the stomach of Njokuani, but he should watch for Anthony’s knees. Winner is a solid fight, and I don’t want to see him leave the UFC as I am a fan of him, but I favor Njokuani in this fight because he is just the faster, better striker.

My Prediction – Anthony Njokuani def. Andre Winner via 3rd Round TKO

 

While there is another bantamweight bout between Jeff Hougland and Donny Walker, I really don’t know too much about either of these guys and this fight doesn’t seem relevant to the UFC. I can’t wait for the show as top to bottom it’s great!

 

My Record – 7-8-2
UFC Live 4: Kongo vs Barry – 4-5-1
Strikeforce: Werdum vs Overeem Picks – 3-3-1

 

By Daniel Galvan
Send me an EmailDgalvanmma@yahoo.com
Follow me on Twitter@DanielGal

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