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UFC 128 Predictions

by on March 18, 2011


We’re not going to claim to be experts, but we, like all of you, like to play “armchair MMA analyst” now and again. This Saturday’s got some darned important matches and what shows importance more than premature speculation! Predictions below the cut!

(Note: if you checked in early in the morning and only see my (Tom) predictions, come back later today when Mike edits his in.)

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship:

JON “Bones” JONES vs MAURICIO “Shogun” RUA

TOM: Jones. I’ve been saying it since the fight was announced: Jones already had the smartest tactician in the game (Greg Jackson) hand him the gameplan to “Shogun” on a silver platter while in fight shape. Rua, on six weeks’ notice, was told he had to switch things up from preparing for an undersized wrestler with good footwork to a GIGANTIC wrestler with the most unorthodox fighting style in the top end of the UFC 205-pound division while still working to get in complete fight shape. That’s too big of a jump in style for anyone, even one who put together the Machida puzzle.

Bantamweight Fight:
“The California Kid” URIJAH FABER vs EDDIE WINELAND

TOM: Faber. Wineland’s got a striker’s chance of knocking Faber out, as he does possess some power in his hands, but this is Urijah’s fight to lose. Everything Wineland’s good at, Faber’s better. Faber has poise in big-fight situations that Wineland’s never had to experience. The only way I see Faber giving this fight up is if the pressure in being in a UFC semi-main event and knowing that a win gets him an Ultimate Fighter coaching gig is far beyond any he ever faced as the poster boy for WEC and he chokes.

Lightweight Fight:
JIM MILLER vs KAMAL SHALORUS

Tom: Miller. Shalorus has been impressive in the past, but Miller has faced more impressive up-and-comers in the lightweight division and shoved the hype right down their throats (Charles Olivera, anyone?). Jim Miller will never be anyone’s pick for best fighter in the history of the planet, but he’s good enough to beat most B-level guys and that’s what I see happening.

Middleweight Fight:
DAN MILLER vs NATE “The Great” MARQUARDT

Tom: Marquardt. Unfortunately, I don’t see the miracle Miller brothers storybook ending going down. It will be boring as all hell, but Nate “The Great is a freakin’ monster at 185 who’s a great enough wrestler to hold most guys down. True, Marquardt goes in with a similar handicap as “Shogun” Rua, but there’s a huge discrepancy between Jonny Jones and Dan Miller. I don’t see Miller giving Marquardt many problems, but I also don’t see Marquardt taking any risks and grinding out a decision.

Heavyweight Fight:
MIRKO “Cro Cop” FILIPOVIC vs “The Hybrid” BRENDAN SCHAUB

Tom: Schaub. Strange how a body part like a chin affects a fight. Schaub’s won most of his fights by knockout. Cro Cop’s been knocked out in scary, scary fashion multiple occasions since coming to UFC. Unless Schaub underestimates Cro Cop, I don’t see any other finish than leather to the jaw.

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That should do it…be sure to listen to this weekend’s “Mike & Tom Present…” , as the Joe Gagne segment is being recorded post-fight, so I’m sure we’ll be able to gloat/make excuses then.

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From → Features, UFC

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